California looks a lot like Indiana — another open primary state with few black voters — and it expects Clinton to lose California by 3 or 4 percentage points, similar to her margin of defeat in the Hoosier State.
These differences are even more profound in other states. Depending on which model you use, Clinton is either an underdog in New Mexico, which has few black voters but lots of Hispanics and Native Americans, or a 50-point favorite.
